Bitcoin · CoinDesk
Buying bitcoin below its 200-week average has historically delivered over 100% in median returns, Kraken says
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Bitcoin BTC $ 63,854.27 has recently been flirting with a level that has historically proved a near-perfect entry point for bulls, generating handsome returns, crypto exchange Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told CoinDesk.
Key facts
- In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024
- Median here means that if you lined up every single time someone bought BTC below the 200-week SMA and ranked their returns from worst to best, then 113% is the return that sits right in the middle
- For those who accumulated below the 200-week MA, the median time to break even on their investment has been two days, while the median maximum drawdown over the subsequent year has been only 9%
- Twice in the past two weeks, BTC dipped briefly below its 200-week SMA before climbing back above it by the end of each week
Summary
Bitcoin's brief dips below its 200-week average have historically delivered median returns in excess of 100% over a year, according to Kraken. That level is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which represents the token's average price over that period, providing traders with a clear glimpse of the long-term trend while cutting through day-to-day noise. Twice in the past two weeks, BTC dipped briefly below its 200-week SMA before climbing back above it by the end of each week. That's notable because, as per Perfumo, closes below this level have been rare, occurring on only about 10% of trading days since mid-2017, and have historically marked unusually attractive entry points for buyers.