Bitcoin · Decrypt
No matter how the AI story ends, Bitwise’s chief investment officer argues
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In a note to investors published Wednesday, Matt Hougan laid out his case using the “Choose Your Own Adventure” books of his childhood, where wildly different choices often funneled readers to the same ending.
Key facts
- He stressed Bitcoin won’t rise in a straight line, noting it fell 50% in days during the 2020 COVID panic before rebounding roughly 20-fold, and acknowledged the thesis could break for non-macro
- The third path, a muddle-through of roughly 3% growth and 4% rates, simply lets Bitcoin keep doing what it’s been doing: drawing ETF flows, advisor adoption and corporate and sovereign balance-sheet
- This is exactly the environment bitcoin was built for,” he wrote, putting the odds of a bailout at “nearly 100%
- He said the range of macro outcomes facing investors today is the widest he’s seen in his career, with pundits split between AI doubling GDP and AI causing human extinction
Summary
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued in an investor note that Bitcoin benefits across nearly every macro scenario, framing it like the “Choose Your Own Adventure” books where different paths reach the same ending. If AI delivers “superabundance,” value flows to scarce assets like Bitcoin; if the AI bubble bursts, he sees a near-certain government bailout and money-printing that Bitcoin “was built for.” He hedged—citing Bitcoin’s 50% COVID drop and risks like a crackdown or quantum computing, but concluded macro “matters less than most people think.” No matter how the AI story ends, Bitwise’s chief investment officer argues, the trade leads to the same place: Bitcoin higher.