JPMorgan · Bitcoin · Bitcoin ETF · The Block
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast but argued that JPMorgan's 55% volatility estimate was too high
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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade," Hougan wrote on X.
Key facts
- BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, meanwhile, attracted $665 million in inflows on Monday, its largest single-day inflow since October 2025
- The firm's 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report estimates bitcoin (BTC) volatility at 55%, compared with a projected 5.5% return for gold
- JPMorgan analysts estimated earlier this month that around $50 billion had flowed into digital assets in 2026
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast but argued that JPMorgan's 55% volatility estimate was too high, citing bitcoin's declining volatility over the past 15 years
Summary
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has issued its first 10-year return forecast for bitcoin, projecting a 10% compounded annual return while cautioning that the cryptocurrency's volatility and unstable correlations with other assets remain obstacles to its widespread inclusion in investment portfolios. The firm's 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report estimates bitcoin (BTC) volatility at 55%, compared with a projected 5.5% return for gold. "The volatility and unstable correlation of assets like bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) remain an obstacle to their widespread inclusion in portfolios," the analysts wrote in the report. The analysts could revise their approach as bitcoin's volatility declines and its correlations with other assets stabilize, particularly as regulation becomes clearer and liquidity and price discovery improve. "Investors are nevertheless increasingly exploring crypto assets, supported by more defined regulation and growing infrastructure (e.g. exchange-traded funds, futures, publicly traded crypto companies, options, bank-grade custody and financing markets)," Dr. Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo wrote in the report.