JPMorgan · Bitcoin · Wall Street · Decrypt
JPMorgan Puts a Number on Bitcoin for the First Time: 10% a Year, With a Big Caveat
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Bitcoin earned a spot in one of Wall Street’s most closely watched return forecasts, and it landed at the top of the table.
Key facts
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Monday, their best day since Sept. 22, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking in $665.2 million
- Bitcoin hovered around $82,000, while the 10-year Treasury yield held above 5%, a competing return with far less volatility
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Monday
- The report pegs Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with about 17% for gold
Summary
J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, its first long-term forecast for the asset. That tops its forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%) and gold (5.5%), but comes with 55% annualized volatility. The firm left Bitcoin out of its main portfolio models, citing volatility and unstable correlations, and called the currency debasement bull case “wide of the mark.” Bitcoin earned a spot in one of Wall Street’s most closely watched return forecasts, and it landed at the top of the table.