New York · Federal Reserve (FED) · Fortune Technology
The U.S. market has never been more focused on one single bet—but AI’s payoff will likely take decades
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Americans have placed an unprecedented bet on the transformative power of artificial intelligence.
Key facts
- Separately, research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shows that AI-related companies’ share of investment-grade bond issuance increased from 2% in 2023 to 10% in 2026, highlighting
- In venture capital, AI captured 81% of a record $300 billion in global venture funding in the first quarter of 2026, and four companies—OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Waymo—absorbed two-thirds
- Not since the Gilded Age—when, in 1885, railroad stocks accounted for more than 80% of active trading on the New York Stock Exchange—has the U.S. economy wagered so much on a single theme
- In equities, the “Magnificent Seven”— Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla—boast a combined $25 trillion in market capitalization
Summary
Not since the Gilded Age—when, in 1885, railroad stocks accounted for more than 80% of active trading on the New York Stock Exchange—has the U.S. economy wagered so much on a single theme. Today’s frantic AI buildout may be on a similar trajectory. In January, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reported that investments in information processing equipment, software, research and development, and data centers—four investment categories economists consider the closest proxies for AI investment—accounted for 39% of U.S. economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, higher than the 28% those activities contributed in 2000, the peak of the dot-com boom. Pantheon Macroeconomics calculates that without AI spending, U.S. corporate investment in equipment was negative last year.