Bangkok Today
KResearch sees gradual recovery in the Thai economy during the second half of 2026, supported by economic stimulus measures, but businesses continue to face multiple challenges
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Although KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has maintained its Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.0 percent, it views that the GDP may have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026. However, energy prices that are expected to stay high for
Key facts
- However, energy prices that are expected to stay high for longer will cause inflation to accelerate further during the second half of 2026, bringing average inflation rate for 2026 to 3.1 percent
- As for the Thai Baht, it may weaken further in line with Thailand’s economic fundamentals, ending 2026 at around 32.80 Baht per US dollar, compared with approximately 32.50–32.60 Baht per US dollar at present.
- Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said that the Thai economy may have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026 and is expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2026, particularly in the third
- As a result, producer prices are expected to continue being passed through to consumer prices, causing headline inflation to peak during the second half of 2026.
- Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to monitor the situation and maintain the policy rate at 1.0 percent
- However, economic risks remain to be seen, primarily stemming from uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, which could affect Thailand’s export sector during the rest of the year
Summary
Although KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has maintained its Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.0 percent, it views that the GDP may have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026. However, energy prices that are expected to stay high for longer will cause inflation to accelerate further during the second half of 2026, bringing average inflation rate for 2026 to 3.1 percent.
Ms. Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said that the Thai economy may have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026 and is expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2026, particularly in the third quarter, thanks to the government economic stimulus measures.